Volume 37 - Article 48 | Pages 1549–1610  

Bayesian projection of life expectancy accounting for the HIV/AIDS epidemic

By Jessica Godwin, Adrian E. Raftery

Abstract

Background: While probabilistic projection methods for projecting life expectancy exist, few account for covariates related to life expectancy. Generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics have a large, immediate negative impact on the life expectancy in a country, but this impact can be mitigated by widespread use of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Thus, projection methods for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics could be improved by accounting for HIV prevalence, the future course of the epidemic, and ART coverage.

Methods: We extend the current Bayesian probabilistic life expectancy projection methods of Raftery et al. (2013) to account for HIV prevalence and adult ART coverage in countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics.

Results: We evaluate our method using out-of-sample validation. We find that the proposed method performs better than the method that does not account for HIV prevalence or ART coverage for projections of life expectancy in countries with a generalized epidemic, while projections for countries without an epidemic remain essentially unchanged.

Conclusions: In general, our projections show rapid recovery to pre-epidemic life expectancy levels in the presence of widespread ART coverage. After the initial life expectancy recovery, we project a steady rise in life expectancy until the end of the century.

Contribution: We develop a simple Bayesian hierarchical model for long-term projections of life expectancy while accounting for HIV/AIDS prevalence and coverage of ART. The method produces well-calibrated projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics up to 2100 while having limited data demands.

Author's Affiliation

• Jessica Godwin - University of Washington, United States of America EMAIL
• Adrian E. Raftery - University of Washington, United States of America EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Developing and implementing the UN's probabilistic population projections as a milestone for Bayesian demography: An interview with Adrian Raftery
Volume 51 - Article 1

Probabilistic forecasting of maximum human lifespan by 2100 using Bayesian population projections
Volume 44 - Article 52

Probabilistic projection of subnational total fertility rates
Volume 38 - Article 60

Regional probabilistic fertility forecasting by modeling between-country correlations
Volume 30 - Article 35

Joint probabilistic projection of female and male life expectancy
Volume 30 - Article 27

Estimating trends in the total fertility rate with uncertainty using imperfect data: Examples from West Africa
Volume 26 - Article 15

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

Excess mortality associated with HIV: Survey estimates from the PHIA project
Volume 51 - Article 38    | Keywords: excess mortality, HIV/AIDS, mortality

A probabilistic model for analyzing summary birth history data
Volume 47 - Article 11    | Keywords: Bayesian hierarchical model, Brass method, Malawi, spatial smoothing, temporal smoothing

To what extent were life expectancy gains in South Africa attributable to declines in HIV/AIDS mortality from 2006 to 2017? A life table analysis of age-specific mortality
Volume 46 - Article 18    | Keywords: antiretroviral therapy, HIV/AIDS, life expectancy, South Africa

Probabilistic projection of subnational total fertility rates
Volume 38 - Article 60    | Keywords: autoregressive model, Bayesian hierarchical model, correlation, scaling model, subnational projections, total fertility rate (TFR)

Global estimation of neonatal mortality using a Bayesian hierarchical splines regression model
Volume 38 - Article 15    | Keywords: Bayesian hierarchical model, millennium development goals, neonatal mortality