Volume 26 - Article 15 | Pages 331–362  

Estimating trends in the total fertility rate with uncertainty using imperfect data: Examples from West Africa

By Leontine Alkema, Adrian E. Raftery, Patrick Gerland, Samuel J. Clark, Francois Pelletier

Abstract

Background: Estimating the total fertility rate is challenging for many developing countries because of limited data and varying data quality. A standardized, reproducible approach to produce estimates that include an uncertainty assessment is desired.

Methods: We develop a method to estimate and assess uncertainty in the total fertility rate over time, based on multiple imperfect observations from different data sources including surveys and censuses. We take account of measurement error in observations by decomposing it into bias and variance and assess both by linear regression on a variety of data quality covariates. We estimate the total fertility rate using a local smoother, and assess uncertainty using the weighted likelihood bootstrap.

Results: We apply our method to data from seven countries in West Africa and construct estimates and uncertainty intervals for the total fertility rate. Based on cross-validation exercises, we find that accounting for differences in data quality between observations gives better calibrated confidence intervals and reduces bias.

Conclusions: When working with multiple imperfect observations from different data sources to estimate the total fertility rate, or demographic indicators in general, potential biases and differences in error variance have to be taken into account to improve the estimates and their uncertainty assessment.

Author's Affiliation

• Leontine Alkema - University of Massachusetts Amherst, United States of America EMAIL
• Adrian E. Raftery - University of Washington, United States of America EMAIL
• Patrick Gerland - United Nations, United States of America EMAIL
• Samuel J. Clark - Ohio State University, United States of America EMAIL
• Francois Pelletier - Statistics Canada, Canada EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Probabilistic projection of subnational total fertility rates
Volume 38 - Article 60

Joint probabilistic projection of female and male life expectancy
Volume 30 - Article 27

Developing and implementing the UN's probabilistic population projections as a milestone for Bayesian demography: An interview with Adrian Raftery
Volume 51 - Article 1

Probabilistic forecasting of maximum human lifespan by 2100 using Bayesian population projections
Volume 44 - Article 52

Global estimation of neonatal mortality using a Bayesian hierarchical splines regression model
Volume 38 - Article 15

Bayesian projection of life expectancy accounting for the HIV/AIDS epidemic
Volume 37 - Article 48

Regional probabilistic fertility forecasting by modeling between-country correlations
Volume 30 - Article 35

Male and female sterility in Zambia
Volume 30 - Article 14

The age pattern of increases in mortality affected by HIV: Bayesian fit of the Heligman-Pollard Model to data from the Agincourt HDSS field site in rural northeast South Africa
Volume 29 - Article 39

Old age mortality in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia
Volume 29 - Article 38

Estimates of Age-Specific Reductions in HIV Prevalence in Uganda: Bayesian Melding Estimation and Probabilistic Population Forecast with an HIV-enabled Cohort Component Projection Model
Volume 27 - Article 26

More on the Cohort-Component Model of Population Projection in the Context of HIV/AIDS: A Leslie Matrix Representation and New Estimates
Volume 25 - Article 2

Hotspots and Coldspots: Household and village-level variation in orphanhood prevalence in rural Malawi
Volume 19 - Article 32

A general temporal data model and the structured population event history register
Volume 15 - Article 7

Toward a Unified Timestamp with explicit precision
Volume 12 - Article 6

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

Children under 5 in polygynous households in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000 to 2020
Volume 51 - Article 32    | Keywords: children, Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), family demography, polygyny, sub-Saharan Africa

Calculating contraceptive prevalence and unmet need for family planning in low-fertility countries with the Generations and Gender Survey
Volume 49 - Article 21    | Keywords: cross-national study, Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), Europe, family planning, Fertility and Family Survey (FFS), Generations and Gender Survey (GGS), longitudinal data, panel data, unplanned births, World Fertility Survey

Women's economic empowerment in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from cross-national population data
Volume 47 - Article 15    | Keywords: agency, Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), economic growth, education, employment, sub-Saharan Africa, women's economic independence

Accuracy of wives' proxy reports of husbands' fertility preferences in sub-Saharan Africa
Volume 46 - Article 17    | Keywords: couples, Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), family planning, fertility, fertility desires, spousal relationships, sub-Saharan Africa

Relationship between vaccination and nutritional status in children: Analysis of recent Demographic and Health Surveys
Volume 42 - Article 1    | Keywords: Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), nutrition, underweight, vaccinations