Volume 47 - Article 11 | Pages 291–344  

A probabilistic model for analyzing summary birth history data

By Katherine Wilson, Jon Wakefield

Abstract

Background: There is an increasing demand for high-quality subnational estimates of under-5 mortality. In low- and middle-income countries, where the burden of under-5 mortality is concentrated, vital registration is often lacking, and household surveys, which provide full birth history data, are often the most reliable source. Unfortunately, these data are spatially sparse so data are pulled from other sources to increase the available information. Summary birth histories represent a large fraction of the available data and provide numbers of births and deaths aggregated over time, along with the mother’s age.

Objective: Specialized methods are needed to leverage this information, and previously the Brass method and variants have been used. We wish to develop a model-based approach that can propagate errors and make the most efficient use of the data. Further, we strive to provide a method that does not have large computational overhead.

Contribution: We describe a computationally efficient model-based approach that allows summary birth history and full birth history data to be combined into analyses of under-5 mortality in a natural way. The method is based on fertility and mortality models that allow smoothing over time and space, with the possibility for including relevant covariates associated with fertility and/or mortality. We first examine the behavior of the approach on simulated data before applying the model to household survey and census data from Malawi.

Author's Affiliation

• Katherine Wilson - University of Washington, United States of America EMAIL
• Jon Wakefield - University of Washington, United States of America EMAIL

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

Interrogating the quality and completion of mortality mobile phone interviews conducted in Malawi during COVID-19: An examination of interviewer–respondent interactions
Volume 51 - Article 46    | Keywords: audio-recording, LMICs, Malawi, mobile phone survey, mortality, RaMMPS

Transitions to adulthood in men and women in rural Malawi in the 21st century using sequence analysis: Some evidence of delay
Volume 51 - Article 14    | Keywords: Africa, Health and Demographic Surveillance System, longitudinal analysis, Malawi, sequence analysis, transition to adulthood

Women’s health decline following (some) unintended births: A prospective study
Volume 45 - Article 17    | Keywords: fertility, Malawi, panel studies, unintended fertility, women's health

Marital dissolutions and changes in mental health: Evidence from rural Malawi
Volume 44 - Article 41    | Keywords: divorce, Malawi, marriage, mental health, widowhood

Knowledge, risk perceptions, and behaviors related to the COVID-19 pandemic in Malawi
Volume 44 - Article 20    | Keywords: adult health, behavioral change, COVID-19, Malawi, risk perception, rural/urban differentials, survey data