Volume 26 - Article 20 | Pages 511–542  

From desires to behavior: Moderating factors in a fertility transition

By Sarah R. Hayford, Victor Agadjanian

Abstract

Background: Extensive research in both developed and developing countries has shown that preferences and intentions for future childbearing predict behavior. However, very little of this research has examined high-fertility contexts in sub-Saharan Africa. In particular, the factors that increase or decrease correspondence between fertility desires and behavior in these settings are not well understood.

Objective: This article documents the degree to which the desire to stop childbearing predicts fertility behavior over the short term among married women in rural southern Mozambique, a context where fertility transition is still in the early stages. Analyses test the moderating powers of individual, household, and community characteristics.

Methods: Analyses use data from a longitudinal survey of married women of reproductive age (N=1678) carried out in 2006 and 2009 in rural areas of southern Mozambique. Logistic regression models are estimated to predict childbearing between 2006 and 2009 based on desires to stop childbearing and characteristics measured in 2006.

Results: As expected, the desire to stop childbearing is strongly predictive of fertility behavior. Household wealth, local adult AIDS mortality, and being married to an unsuccessful labor migrant are associated with higher correspondence between reported desire to stop childbearing and fertility behavior.

Conclusions: Both factors related to the ability to carry out desires to stop childbearing and factors related to the strength and consistency of these desires moderate the association between desires and behaviors. Future research should expand measurement of fertility preferences to incorporate their strength and consistency as well as direction.

Author's Affiliation

• Sarah R. Hayford - Ohio State University, United States of America EMAIL
• Victor Agadjanian - University of California, Los Angeles, United States of America EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

The paradox of change: Religion and fertility decline in South Korea
Volume 44 - Article 23

Migration, legality, and fertility regulation: Abortion and contraception among migrants and natives in Russia
Volume 38 - Article 42

Women’s decision-making autonomy and children’s schooling in rural Mozambique
Volume 32 - Article 25

Sampling and Surveying Hard-to-Reach Populations for Demographic Research: A Study of Female Labor Migrants in Moscow, Russia
Volume 26 - Article 5

Age, relationship status, and the planning status of births
Volume 23 - Article 13

Marriage, childbearing, and migration in Kyrgyzstan: Exploring interdependencies
Volume 22 - Article 7

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

Using Respondent-Driven Sampling to measure abortion safety in restrictive contexts: Results from Kaya (Burkina Faso) and Nairobi (Kenya)
Volume 50 - Article 47    | Keywords: induced abortion, respondents-driven samples, social networks, sub-Saharan Africa

Predictive utility of key family planning indicators on dynamic contraceptive outcomes: Results from longitudinal surveys in Burkina Faso, Kenya, Uganda, and Côte d'Ivoire
Volume 50 - Article 45    | Keywords: contraception, contraceptive adoption, contraceptive discontinuation, contraceptive use, family planning, longitudinal data, methods, panel data, Performance and Monitoring for Action (PMA) surveys, sub-Saharan Africa

The big decline: Lowest-low fertility in Uruguay (2016–2021)
Volume 50 - Article 16    | Keywords: adolescent fertility, birth order, fertility, Latin America, ultra-low fertility, Uruguay

Cohort fertility of immigrants to Israel from the former Soviet Union
Volume 50 - Article 13    | Keywords: age at first birth, assimilation, cohort analysis, fertility, immigration, parity, religiosity

Fertility decline, changes in age structure, and the potential for demographic dividends: A global analysis
Volume 50 - Article 9    | Keywords: age structure, demographic dividend, demographic transition, fertility, migration, population momentum, working-age population