Volume 22 - Article 15 | Pages 383–472  

Projection of populations by level of educational attainment, age, and sex for 120 countries for 2005-2050

By Samir KC, Bilal Barakat, Anne Goujon, Vegard Skirbekk, Warren C. Sanderson, Wolfgang Lutz

Abstract

Using demographic multi-state, cohort-component methods, we produce projections for 120 countries (covering 93% of the world population in 2005) by five-year age groups, sex, and four levels of educational attainment for the years 2005-2050. Taking into account differentials in fertility and mortality by education level, we present the first systematic global educational attainment projections according to four widely differing education scenarios. The results show the possible range of future educational attainment trends around the world, thereby contributing to long-term economic and social planning at the national and international levels, and to the assessment of the feasibility of international education goals.

Author's Affiliation

• Samir KC - Shanghai University, China EMAIL
• Bilal Barakat - Österreichische Akademie der Wissenschaften, Austria EMAIL
• Anne Goujon - Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna), Austria EMAIL
• Vegard Skirbekk - Folkehelseinstituttet (Norwegian Institute of Public Health), Norway EMAIL
• Warren C. Sanderson - Stony Brook University, United States of America EMAIL
• Wolfgang Lutz - Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna), Austria EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Education stalls and subsequent stalls in African fertility: A descriptive overview
Volume 33 - Article 47

A multidimensional global migration model for use in cohort-component population projections
Volume 51 - Article 11

A Bayesian model for the reconstruction of education- and age-specific fertility rates: An application to African and Latin American countries
Volume 49 - Article 31

Assessing the demographic impact of migration on the working-age population across European territories
Volume 46 - Article 9

Exploring the fertility trend in Egypt
Volume 37 - Article 32

Generalised count distributions for modelling parity
Volume 36 - Article 26

Are daughters’ childbearing intentions related to their mothers’ socio-economic status?
Volume 35 - Article 21

The future size of religiously affiliated and unaffiliated populations
Volume 32 - Article 27

Is Buddhism the low fertility religion of Asia?
Volume 32 - Article 1

Ageing dynamics of a human-capital-specific population: A demographic perspective
Volume 31 - Article 44

A cross-country comparison of math achievement at teen age and cognitive performance 40 years later
Volume 31 - Article 4

Quantifying policy tradeoffs to support aging populations
Volume 30 - Article 20

How does education change the relationship between fertility and age-dependency under environmental constraints? A long-term simulation exercise
Volume 30 - Article 16

Modelling the constraints on consanguineous marriage when fertility declines
Volume 30 - Article 9

Drop-out mayors and graduate farmers: Educational fertility differentials by occupational status and industry in six European countries
Volume 28 - Article 42

Very long range global population scenarios to 2300 and the implications of sustained low fertility
Volume 28 - Article 39

Fertility trends by social status
Volume 18 - Article 5

A new perspective on population aging
Volume 16 - Article 2

Decomposing the change in labour force indicators over time
Volume 13 - Article 7

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

Is single parenthood increasingly an experience of less-educated mothers? A European comparison over five decades
Volume 51 - Article 34    | Keywords: age, children, cross-national comparison, education, Europe, family life course, inequality, single motherhood

Projection of US adult obesity trends based on individual BMI trajectories
Volume 51 - Article 13    | Keywords: BMI trajectory reconstruction, obesity, projections, time spent obese

A multidimensional global migration model for use in cohort-component population projections
Volume 51 - Article 11    | Keywords: age dependency, education, international migration, migration, modelling, population projection, projections

Are highly educated partners really more gender egalitarian? A couple-level analysis of social class differentials in attitudes and behaviors
Volume 50 - Article 34    | Keywords: attitudes, couple analysis, education, educational level, gender, gender roles, housework, social class differentials

The importance of education for understanding variability of dementia onset in the United States
Volume 50 - Article 26    | Keywords: dementia, education, lifespan variability, modal age, morbidity compression