Volume 22 - Article 15 | Pages 383–472  

Projection of populations by level of educational attainment, age, and sex for 120 countries for 2005-2050

By Samir KC, Bilal Barakat, Anne Goujon, Vegard Skirbekk, Warren C. Sanderson, Wolfgang Lutz

Abstract

Using demographic multi-state, cohort-component methods, we produce projections for 120 countries (covering 93% of the world population in 2005) by five-year age groups, sex, and four levels of educational attainment for the years 2005-2050. Taking into account differentials in fertility and mortality by education level, we present the first systematic global educational attainment projections according to four widely differing education scenarios. The results show the possible range of future educational attainment trends around the world, thereby contributing to long-term economic and social planning at the national and international levels, and to the assessment of the feasibility of international education goals.

Author's Affiliation

• Samir KC - Shanghai University, China EMAIL
• Bilal Barakat - Österreichische Akademie der Wissenschaften, Austria EMAIL
• Anne Goujon - Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna), Austria EMAIL
• Vegard Skirbekk - Folkehelseinstituttet (Norwegian Institute of Public Health), Norway EMAIL
• Warren C. Sanderson - Stony Brook University, United States of America EMAIL
• Wolfgang Lutz - Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna), Austria EMAIL

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