Volume 51 - Article 11 | Pages 323–376  

A multidimensional global migration model for use in cohort-component population projections

By Lucas Kluge, Orlando Olaya-Bucaro, Samir KC, Dilek Yildiz, Guy Abel, Jacob Schewe

Abstract

Background: International migration is influenced by economic and social factors that change over time. However, given the complexity of these relationships, global population scenarios to date include only stylized migration assumptions that do not account for changes in the drivers of migration. On the other hand, existing projection models of international migration do not resolve all demographic dimensions necessary to interact with the cohort-component models typically used for population projections.

Objective: Here we present a global model of bilateral migration that resolves these dimensions while also accounting for important external, economic, and social factors.

Methods: We include age, education, and gender dependencies into a recently developed model of migration by origin, destination, and country of birth. We calibrate the model on bilateral flow data, couple it to a widely used cohort-component population model, and project migration until 2050 under three alternative socioeconomic scenarios.

Conclusions: The extended model fits data better than the original migration model and is more sensitive to the choice of socioeconomic scenario, thus yielding a wider range of projections. Regional net migration flows projected by the model are substantially larger than in the stylized assumptions. The largest flows are projected in the most economically unequal scenario, while previously, the same scenario was assumed to have the smallest flows.

Contribution: The results offer an opportunity to reconcile stylized migration assumptions with quantitative estimates of the roles of important migration drivers. The coupled migration-population modeling framework means that interactions between migration and other demographic processes can be captured, and the migration component can be evaluated in more detail than before.

Author's Affiliation

• Lucas Kluge - Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Germany EMAIL
• Orlando Olaya-Bucaro - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria EMAIL
• Samir KC - Shanghai University, China EMAIL
• Dilek Yildiz - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria EMAIL
• Guy Abel - Shanghai University, China EMAIL
• Jacob Schewe - Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Germany EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

A Bayesian model for the reconstruction of education- and age-specific fertility rates: An application to African and Latin American countries
Volume 49 - Article 31

Global bilateral migration projections accounting for diasporas, transit and return flows, and poverty constraints
Volume 45 - Article 4

Using Twitter data for demographic research
Volume 37 - Article 46

Education stalls and subsequent stalls in African fertility: A descriptive overview
Volume 33 - Article 47

Projection of populations by level of educational attainment, age, and sex for 120 countries for 2005-2050
Volume 22 - Article 15

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

Left behind single in the partnering market? Entry into cohabiting unions by women and men with low educational attainment across regions of Europe, cohorts 1960 to 1985
Volume 51 - Article 43    | Keywords: cohabitation, education, Europe, European Social Survey, event history analysis, logistic regression, marginalization, partner selection, singlehood, union formation

Is single parenthood increasingly an experience of less-educated mothers? A European comparison over five decades
Volume 51 - Article 34    | Keywords: age, children, cross-national comparison, education, Europe, family life course, inequality, single motherhood

Projection of US adult obesity trends based on individual BMI trajectories
Volume 51 - Article 13    | Keywords: BMI trajectory reconstruction, obesity, projections, time spent obese

Which definition of migration better fits Facebook ‘expats’? A response using Mexican census data
Volume 50 - Article 39    | Keywords: census data, Facebook, international migration, Mexico, social media

Are highly educated partners really more gender egalitarian? A couple-level analysis of social class differentials in attitudes and behaviors
Volume 50 - Article 34    | Keywords: attitudes, couple analysis, education, educational level, gender, gender roles, housework, social class differentials