Volume 41 - Article 12 | Pages 331–366  

Impacts of education and immigration on the size and skills of the future workforce

By Samuel Vézina, Alain Bélanger

Abstract

Background: In most developed countries the demographic regime is characterised by low fertility, high immigration, and population ageing. This regime impacts on the size of the labour force population, the ethno-cultural composition, and potential productivity.

Objective: We examine the prospective impacts of two sociodemographic changes, namely increasing education and increasing immigration levels, on the size and skills of the workforce aged 25 to 64 years old for the time period 2011–2061.

Methods: We use microsimulation models to project the population of Austria and Canada by age, sex, and several other socioeconomic and ethno-cultural dimensions. Using ‘what-if’ scenarios, we measure the impact of different immigration rates and immigrant selection patterns on the size and average literacy skills of the projected workforce. We also examine the potential effects of different assumptions about future educational attainment on the projection outcomes.

Results: The results show that the volume of immigration heavily influences the expansion of the workforce .In terms of education among the general population, the rise in educational attainment is positively correlated with higher skill levels. However, increased immigration can override the effect that increasing education levels have on advancing workforce skills.

Contribution: This paper shows the extent to which Austria and Canada have adopted diametrically opposed strategies regarding the future development of their workforces. Assuming that current policy goals hold true in the coming decades, Austria is likely to rely on a higher-skilled but declining (in size) workforce, whereas Canada will rely on a fast-growing but less-skilled and more culturally diversified workforce.

Author's Affiliation

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

A framework for the prospective analysis of ethno-cultural super-diversity
Volume 41 - Article 11

How reducing differentials in education and labor force participation could lessen workforce decline in the EU-28
Volume 41 - Article 6

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

Projection of US adult obesity trends based on individual BMI trajectories
Volume 51 - Article 13    | Keywords: BMI trajectory reconstruction, obesity, projections, time spent obese

A multidimensional global migration model for use in cohort-component population projections
Volume 51 - Article 11    | Keywords: age dependency, education, international migration, migration, modelling, population projection, projections

The intergenerational transmission of migration capital: The role of family migration history and lived migration experiences
Volume 50 - Article 29    | Keywords: childhood, emigration, Europe, immigration, life course

Mortality inequalities at retirement age between migrants and non-migrants in Denmark and Sweden
Volume 50 - Article 18    | Keywords: immigration, life expectancy, lifespan inequality, Nordic countries, pension age, pension policy

Religious affiliation and child mortality in Ireland: A country-wide analysis based on the 1911 Census
Volume 50 - Article 14    | Keywords: child mortality, indirect estimation methods, Ireland, literacy, OLS regressions, place of residence, religious affiliation, socioeconomic status