Volume 18 - Article 14 | Pages 409–436  

Constant global population with demographic heterogeneity

By Joel E. Cohen

Abstract

To understand better a possible future constant global population that is demographically heterogeneous, this paper analyzes several models. Classical theory of stationary populations generally fails to apply. However, if constant global population size P(global) is the sum of all country population sizes, and if constant global annual number of births B(global) is the sum of the annual number of births of all countries, and if constant global life expectancy at birth e(global) is the population-weighted mean of the life expectancy at birth of all countries, then B(global) x e(global) always exceeds P(global) unless all countries have the same life expectancy at birth.

Author's Affiliation

• Joel E. Cohen - Rockefeller University, United States of America EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Measuring the concentration of urban population in the negative exponential model using the Lorenz curve, Gini coefficient, Hoover dissimilarity index, and relative entropy
Volume 44 - Article 49

Gompertz, Makeham, and Siler models explain Taylor's law in human mortality data
Volume 38 - Article 29

Taylor's power law in human mortality
Volume 33 - Article 21

Is the fraction of people ever born who are currently alive rising or falling?
Volume 30 - Article 56

Life expectancy: Lower and upper bounds from surviving fractions and remaining life expectancy
Volume 24 - Article 11

Life expectancy is the death-weighted average of the reciprocal of the survival-specific force of mortality
Volume 22 - Article 5

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

Migration, daily commuting, or second residence? The role of location-specific capital and distance to workplace in regional mobility decisions
Volume 50 - Article 33    | Keywords: commuting, location-specific capital, migration, multilocality, regional mobility, second residence, Sozio-oekonomisches Panel (SOEP), spatial mobility

Standardized mean age at death (MADstd): Exploring its potentials as a measure of human longevity
Volume 50 - Article 30    | Keywords: formal demography, life expectancy, mean age at death, mortality, standardization

How lifespan and life years lost equate to unity
Volume 50 - Article 24    | Keywords: life expectancy, life table entropy, life years lost, lifespan variation

Subnational contribution to life expectancy and life span variation changes: Evidence from the United States
Volume 50 - Article 22    | Keywords: decomposition methods, life expectancy, lifespan variation, subnational mortality

Mortality inequalities at retirement age between migrants and non-migrants in Denmark and Sweden
Volume 50 - Article 18    | Keywords: immigration, life expectancy, lifespan inequality, Nordic countries, pension age, pension policy