Volume 51 - Article 5 | Pages 107–154  

Impact of family policies and economic situation on low fertility in Tehran, Iran: A multi-agent-based modeling

By Nasibeh Esmaeili, Mohammad Jalal Abbasi Shavazi

Abstract

Objective: This paper investigates and predicts the impact of family policies and the economic situation on women’s reproductive behavior in Tehran Province, Iran.

Methods: The low fertility behavior of women in terms of simultaneous interaction among such agents as household, women, and government is modeled using a multi-agent-based modeling. The probability, heterogeneity, uncertainty, and interactions of agents are the top features of the model. The model is developed based on the micro level and utilized at the macro level for the prediction of a range of such reproductive outcomes as the total fertility rate (TFR), the cumulative frequency of children ever born, unwanted and wanted pregnancies, miscarriage, and induced abortions of women in Tehran Province during 2019 and 2029.

Results: The results derived by the model projects show that the TFR in Tehran Province will decline with a steep downward trend over 10 years from 1.4 children in 2019 to 1.06 children in 2029 while the peak of childbearing is observed for the age group 25 to 29. With the implementation of the optimistic economic scenario and the provision of family support policies by the government, the TFR would reach 1.1 children in 2029, and the peak of childbearing will shift to the 20 to 24 age group.

Contribution: This paper provides a multi-agent-based model for low fertility as a complex system. This model facilitates computer-based simulations, enhances demographic methods, and is a useful tool for evaluating the impacts of long-term population policies. The results help policymakers to predict the outcomes that may be obtained in the future based on the current population policies and programs.

Author's Affiliation

• Nasibeh Esmaeili - University of Tehran, Iran (Islamic Republic Of) EMAIL
• Mohammad Jalal Abbasi Shavazi - Vienna Institute of Demography (Austrian Academy of Sciences), Austria EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

An assessment of recent Iranian fertility trends using parity progression ratios
Volume 32 - Article 58

Family life and developmental idealism in Yazd, Iran
Volume 26 - Article 10

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

Cash transfers and fertility: Evidence from Poland’s Family 500+ Policy
Volume 51 - Article 28    | Keywords: cash transfer, family demography, low fertility, Poland, public policy

Lowest low fertility in Spain: Insights from the 2018 Spanish Fertility Survey
Volume 51 - Article 19    | Keywords: fertility desires, low fertility, Spain

Near-universal marriage, early childbearing, and low fertility: India’s alternative fertility transition
Volume 48 - Article 34    | Keywords: age at birth, fertility transition, India, low fertility, sterilisation

Heterogeneity among the never married in a low-fertility context
Volume 47 - Article 24    | Keywords: latent class analysis, low fertility, marriage, Singapore, singlehood

The association between childlessness and voting turnout in 38 countries
Volume 47 - Article 14    | Keywords: childlessness, democracy, low fertility, voting turnout