Volume 51 - Article 13 | Pages 425–458  

Projection of US adult obesity trends based on individual BMI trajectories

By Nicolas Todd, Mikko Myrskylä

References

Abdullah, A., Wolfe, R., Stoelwinder, J.U., Courten, M., Stevenson, C., Walls, H.L., and Peeters, A. (2011). The number of years lived with obesity and the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality. International Journal of Epidemiology 40(4): 985–996.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Berrington de Gonzalez, A., Hartge, P., Cerhan, J.R., Flint, A.J., Hannan, L., MacInnis, R.J., Moore, S.C., and Thun, M.J. (2010). Body-mass index and mortality among 1.46 million white adults. New England Journal of Medicine 363(23): 2211–2219.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Finkelstein, E.A., Khavjou, O.A., Thompson, H., Trogdon, J.D., Pan, L., Sherry, B., and Dietz, W. (2012). Obesity and severe obesity forecasts through 2030. American Journal of Preventive Medicine 42(6): 563–570.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Flegal, K.M., Carroll, M.D., Kuczmarski, R.J., and Johnson, C.L. (1998). Overweight and obesity in the United States: prevalence and trends, 1960–1994. International Journal of Obesity 22: 39–47.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Flegal, K.M., Kit, B.K., and Graubard, B.I. (2018). Bias in hazard ratios arising from misclassification according to self-reported weight and height in observational studies of body mass index and mortality. American Journal of Epidemiology 187(1): 125–134.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Hales, C.M., Carroll, M.D., Fryar, C.D., and Ogden, C.L. (2020). Prevalence of obesity and severe obesity among adults: United States, 2017–2018. Hyattsville, MD: NCHS Data Brief, NCHS Data Brief.

Download reference:

Kahn, S.E., Hull, R.L., and Utzschneider, K.M. (2006). Mechanisms linking obesity to insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes. Nature 444(7121): 840–846.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Myrskylä, M. and Chang, V.W. (2009). Weight change, initial BMI, and mortality among middle- and older-aged adults. Epidemiology 20(6): 840–848.

Weblink:
Download reference:

NCHS (2020). National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Atlanta, GA: CDC.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Ogden, C.L., Carroll, M.D., Fryar, C.D., and Flegal, K.M. (2015). Prevalence of obesity among adults and youth: United States, 2011–2014. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics, NCHS Data Brief 219.

Download reference:

Ogden, C.L., Carroll, M.D., Lawman, H.G., Fryar, C.D., Kruszon-Moran, D., Kit, B.K., and Flegal, K.M. (2016). Trends in obesity prevalence among children and adolescents in the united states, 1988–1994 through 2013–2014. JAMA 315(21): 2292–2299.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Olshansky, S.J., Passaro, D.J., Hershow, R.C., Layden, J., Carnes, B.A., Brody, J., Hayflick, L., Butler, R.N., Allison, D.B., and Ludwig, D.S. (2005). A potential decline in life expectancy in the United States in the 21st century. New England Journal of Medicine 352(11): 1138–1145.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Ortega, F.B., Lavie, C.J., and Blair, S.N. (2016). Obesity and cardiovascular disease. Circulation Research logo 118(11): 1752–1770.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Palta, M., Prineas, R.J., Berman, R., and Hannan, P. (1982). Comparison of self-reported and measured height and weight. American Journal of Epidemiology 115(2): 223–230.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Pearson-Stuttard, J., Zhou, B., Kontis, V., Bentham, J., Gunter, M.J., and Ezzati, M. (2017). Worldwide burden of cancer attributable to diabetes and high body-mass index: A comparative risk assessment. The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology 6(2): 95–104.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Preston, S.H., Mehta, N.K., and Stokes, A. (2013). Modeling obesity histories in cohort analyses of health and mortality. Epidemiology 24(1): 158–166.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Preston, S.H., Stokes, A., Mehta, N.K., and Cao, B. (2014). Projecting the effect of changes in smoking and obesity on future life expectancy in the United States. Demography 51(1): 27–49.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Preston, S.H., Vierboom, Y.C., and Stokes, A. (2018). The role of obesity in exceptionally slow US mortality improvement. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115(5): 957–961.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Prospective Studies Collaboration (2009). Body-mass index and cause-specific mortality in 900 000 adults: Collaborative analyses of 57 prospective studies. Lancet 373(9669): 1083–1096.

Weblink:
Download reference:

R Core Team (2020). R: A language and environment for statistical computing [electronic resource].

Weblink:
Download reference:

Ruhm, C.J. (2007). Current and future prevalence of obesity and severe obesity in the United States. Forum for Health Economics and Policy 10(2): 1–26.

Download reference:

Stewart, S.T., Cutler, D.M., and Rosen, A.B. (2009). Forecasting the effects of obesity and smoking on U.S. life expectancy. New England Journal of Medicine 361(23): 2252–2260.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Stokes, A. and Preston, S.H. (2016). Revealing the burden of obesity using weight histories. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113(3): 572–577.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Van Gaal, L.F., Mertens, I.L., and De Block, C.E. (2006). Mechanisms linking obesity with cardiovascular disease. Nature 444(7121): 875–880.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Wang, Y., Beydoun, M.A., Liang, L., Caballero, B., and Kumanyika, S.K. (2008). Will all Americans become overweight or obese? Estimating the progression and cost of the US obesity epidemic. Obesity 16(10): 2323–2330.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Ward, Z.J., Bleich, S.N., Cradock, A.L., Barrett, J.L., Giles, C.M., Flax, C., Long, M.W., and Gortmaker, S.L. (2019). Projected U.S. state-level prevalence of adult obesity and severe obesity. New England Journal of Medicine 381(25): 2440–2450.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Ward, Z.J., Long, M.W., Resch, S.C., Giles, C.M., Cradock, A.L., and Gortmaker, S.L. (2017). Simulation of growth trajectories of childhood obesity into adulthood. New England Journal of Medicine 377(22): 2145–2153.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Ward, Z.J., Long, M.W., Resch, S.C., Gortmaker, S.L., Cradock, A.L., Giles, C., Hsiao, A., and Wang, Y.C. (2016). Redrawing the US obesity landscape: Bias-corrected estimates of state-specific adult obesity prevalence. PLoS ONE 11(3): 0150735.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Yang, J.J. and Ren, P. (2019). BFDA: A MATLAB toolbox for Bayesian functional data analysis. Journal of Statistical Software 89(2).

Weblink:
Download reference:

Yang, J.J., Zhu, H., Choi, T., and Cox, D.C. (2016). Smoothing and mean-covariance estimation of functional data with a Bayesian hierarchical model. Bayesian Analysis 11(3): 649–670.

Weblink:
Download reference:

Back to the article