Volume 51 - Article 1 | Pages 1–16
Developing and implementing the UN's probabilistic population projections as a milestone for Bayesian demography: An interview with Adrian Raftery
By Monica Alexander, Adrian E. Raftery
References
Alho, J., Alders, M., Cruijsen, H., Keilman, N., Nikander, T., and Pham, D.Q. (2006). New forecast: Population decline postponed in Europe. Statistical Journal of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe 23(1): 1–10.
Alkema, L. and New, J.R. (2014). Global estimation of child mortality using a Bayesian B-spline bias-reduction model. The Annals of Applied Statistics 8(4): 2122–2149.
Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E., and Clark, S.J. (2007). Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using Bayesian melding. The Annals of Applied Statistics 1(1): 229–248.
Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E., Gerland, P., Clark, S.J., and Pelletier, F. (2012). Estimating trends in the total fertility rate with uncertainty using imperfect data: Examples from West Africa. Demographic Research 26(15): 331–362.
Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E., Gerland, P., Clark, S.J., Pelletier, F., Buettner, T., and Heilig, G.K. (2011). Probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries. Demography 48(3): 815–839.
Azose, J.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2015). Bayesian probabilistic projection of international migration. Demography 52(5): 1627–1650.
Bijak, J. and Bryant, J. (2016). Bayesian demography 250 years after Bayes. Population Studies 70(1): 1–19.
Buettner, T. (2020). Perspectives de population mondiale: Une vision sur le long terme/ World population prospects: A long view. Economie et Statistique 520(1): 9–29.
Castanheira, H., Pelletier, F., and Ribeiro, I. (2017). A sensitivity analysis of the Bayesian framework for projecting life expectancy at birth. New York: United Nations, UN Population Division, Technical Paper 7.
Keyfitz, N. (1972). On future population. Journal of the American Statistical Association 67(338): 347–363.
Keyfitz, N. (1981). The limits of population forecasting. Population and Development Review 7(4): 579–593.
Lee, R.D. and Carter, L.R. (1992). Modeling and forecasting US mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association 87(419): 659–671.
Lee, R.D. and Miller, T. (2001). Evaluating the performance of the Lee–Carter method for forecasting mortality. Demography 38(4): 537–549.
Lee, R.D. and Tuljapurkar, S. (1994). Stochastic population forecasts for the United States: Beyond high, medium, and low. Journal of the American Statistical Association 89(428): 1175–1189.
Leslie, P.H. (1945). On the use of matrices in certain population mathematics. Biometrika 33(3): 183–212.
Li, N. and Lee, R. (2005). Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: An extension of the Lee–Carter method. Demography 42: 575–594.
Liu, P. and Raftery, A.E. (2020). Accounting for uncertainty about past values in probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for most countries. The Annals of Applied Statistics 14(2): 685.
Lutz, W., Sanderson, W.C., and Scherbov, S. (1998). Expert-based probabilistic population projections. Population and Development Review 24: 139–155.
Ouellette, N., Barbieri, M., and Wilmoth, J.R. (2014). Period-based mortality change: Turning points in trends since 1950. Population and Development Review 40(1): 77–106.
Poole, D. and Raftery, A.E. (2000). Inference for deterministic simulation models: The Bayesian melding approach. Journal of the American Statistical Association 95(452): 1244–1255.
Raftery, A.E. (2016). Use and communication of probabilistic forecasts. Statistical Analysis and Data Mining: The ASA Data Science Journal 9(6): 397–410.
Raftery, A.E., Alkema, L., and Gerland, P. (2014). Bayesian population projections for the United Nations. Statistical Science: A Review Journal of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics 29(1): 58.
Raftery, A.E., Chunn, J.L., Gerland, P., and Ševčı́ková, H. (2013). Bayesian probabilistic projections of life expectancy for all countries. Demography 50(3): 777–801.
Raftery, A.E., Givens, G.H., and Zeh, J.E. (1995). Inference from a deterministic population dynamics model for bowhead whales. Journal of the American Statistical Association 90(430): 402–416.
Raftery, A.E., Lalic, N., and Gerland, P. (2014). Joint probabilistic projection of female and male life expectancy. Demographic Research 30(27): 795–822.
Raftery, A.E. and Ševčı́ková, H. (2023). Probabilistic population forecasting: Short to very long-term. International Journal of Forecasting 39(1): 73–97.
Ševčı́ková, H., Li, N., Kantorová, V., Gerland, P., and Raftery, A.E. (2016). Age-specific mortality and fertility rates for probabilistic population projections. In: Schoen, R. (ed.). Dynamic demographic analysis. Cham: Springer: 285–310.
Tatem, A.J. (2017). WorldPop, open data for spatial demography. Scientific Data 4(1): 1–4.
Tuljapurkar, S. and Lee, R.D. (1995). Inference from a deterministic population dynamics model for bowhead whales: Comment. Journal of the American Statistical Association 90(430): 424–425.
Wheldon, M.C., Raftery, A.E., Clark, S.J., and Gerland, P. (2013). Reconstructing past populations with uncertainty from fragmentary data. Journal of the American Statistical Association 108(501): 96–110.
Whelpton, P.K. (1936). An empirical method of calculating future population. Journal of the American Statistical Association 31(195): 457–473.