Volume 31 - Article 23 | Pages 687–734  

Certainty of meeting fertility intentions declines in Europe during the 'Great Recession'

By Maria Rita Testa, Stuart Gietel-Basten

Abstract

Background: Relatively little research has been conducted on how economic recessions impact fertility intentions. In particular, uncertainty in reproductive intentions has not been examined in relation to economic shocks.

Objective: The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of individuals' perception of negative changes in both their own and their country's economic performance on reproductive intentions in Europe during the time of the 'Great Recession' (2006-2011). Crucially, we examine both intentions and stated certainty of meeting these intentions.

Methods: Using the 2011 Eurobarometer survey for 27 European countries, fertility intentions and reproductive uncertainty are regressed on individuals' perceptions of past trends in country's economic situation, household's financial situation, and personal job situation. Multilevel ordinal regressions models are run separately for people at parities zero and one as well as controlling for a set of socio-demographic variables.

Results: A worsening in the households' financial situation, as perceived in the years of the economic crisis, does not affect people's fertility intentions but rather the certainty of meeting these intentions. This relationship holds true at the individual-level for childless people. The more negative the individual's assessment of the household's financial situation, the higher the reproductive uncertainty. While this works exclusively at the country-level for people at parity one, the higher the share of people‟s pessimism on households' financial situation in the country the more insecure individuals of such a country are about having additional children.

Conclusions: The empirical evidence suggests that individuals' uncertainty about realising their fertility intentions has risen in Europe and is positively linked to people's perceived household financial difficulties. If European economies continue to fare poorly, fertility intentions could eventually start to decline in response to such difficulties.

Author's Affiliation

• Maria Rita Testa - Libera Università Internazionale degli Studi Sociali "Guido Carli", Italy EMAIL
• Stuart Gietel-Basten - Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Ageing and diversity: Inequalities in longevity and health in low-mortality countries
Volume 50 - Article 12

When partners’ disagreement prevents childbearing: A couple-level analysis in Australia
Volume 44 - Article 33

Are daughters’ childbearing intentions related to their mothers’ socio-economic status?
Volume 35 - Article 21

Modelling the constraints on consanguineous marriage when fertility declines
Volume 30 - Article 9

Very long range global population scenarios to 2300 and the implications of sustained low fertility
Volume 28 - Article 39

Couple disagreement about short-term fertility desires in Austria: Effects on intentions and contraceptive behaviour
Volume 26 - Article 3

Gender equality and fertility intentions revisited: Evidence from Finland
Volume 24 - Article 20

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

Left behind single in the partnering market? Entry into cohabiting unions by women and men with low educational attainment across regions of Europe, cohorts 1960 to 1985
Volume 51 - Article 43    | Keywords: cohabitation, education, Europe, European Social Survey, event history analysis, logistic regression, marginalization, partner selection, singlehood, union formation

Is single parenthood increasingly an experience of less-educated mothers? A European comparison over five decades
Volume 51 - Article 34    | Keywords: age, children, cross-national comparison, education, Europe, family life course, inequality, single motherhood

The transition to adulthood in Europe at the intersection of gender and parental socioeconomic status
Volume 51 - Article 23    | Keywords: Europe, Europe, event history, event history, gender, multilevel analysis, parental socio-economic status, stratification, transition to adulthood

The intergenerational transmission of migration capital: The role of family migration history and lived migration experiences
Volume 50 - Article 29    | Keywords: childhood, emigration, Europe, immigration, life course

Measuring the educational gradient of period fertility in 28 European countries: A new approach based on parity-specific fertility estimates
Volume 49 - Article 34    | Keywords: education, Europe, period fertility, quantum, tempo, total fertility rate (TFR)