Volume 19 - Article 62 | Pages 2057–2114  

Union formation and fertility in Bulgaria and Russia: A life table description of recent trends

By Dimiter Philipov, Aiva Jasilioniene

Abstract

The paper provides an extensive descriptive analysis and comparison of recent trends in union formation and fertility in Bulgaria and Russia. The analysis is based on data from the Generation and Gender Surveys (GGS) carried out in 2004. We generate a large number of single- and multi-decrement life tables describing various life course events: leaving home and separation from the parental family, entry into union, first and second childbirth, divorce. Life tables are constructed for real cohorts as well as for synthetic cohorts. We study four real cohorts, born in 1940-44, 1950-54, 1960-64 and 1970-74. Synthetic-cohort life tables are constructed for three periods of time, referring to the pre-transitional demographic situation (1985-1989), the beginning of the transition (1990-1994) and recent demographic developments (1999-2003). We study also Roma and Turkish ethnic groups in Bulgaria. The life tables deliver detailed information that is otherwise unavailable. Our tentative findings indicate that societal transformation had a stronger impact on family-related behavior in the Bulgarian population than in the population of Russia. There is evidence that in some aspects Bulgaria is lagging behind other former socialist and Western European countries where the second demographic transition is more advanced. Evidence also suggests that Russia is lagging behind Bulgaria. However, certain specific features distinctive to Russia, such as the low level of childlessness, a drastic drop in second and subsequent births, and very high divorce rates even compared to Western European countries (it is a long-standing, not just recent trend), lead us to think that Russia may have a model of change particular to the country.

Author's Affiliation

• Dimiter Philipov - Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna), Austria EMAIL
• Aiva Jasilioniene - Max-Planck-Institut für Demografische Forschung, Germany EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Differences by union status in health and mortality at older ages: Results for 16 European countries
Volume 35 - Article 19

Socio-economic determinants of divorce in Lithuania: Evidence from register-based census-linked data
Volume 33 - Article 30

Ageing dynamics of a human-capital-specific population: A demographic perspective
Volume 31 - Article 44

Fertility Reactions to the "Great Recession" in Europe: Recent Evidence from Order-Specific Data
Volume 29 - Article 4

Should governments in Europe be more aggressive in pushing for gender equality to raise fertility? The first "NO"
Volume 24 - Article 8

Levels of recent union formation : Six European countries compared
Volume 22 - Article 9

Lithuania: Fertility decline and its determinants
Volume 19 - Article 20

Bulgaria: Ethnic differentials in rapidly declining fertility
Volume 19 - Article 13

Pathways to stepfamily formation in Europe: Results from the FFS
Volume 8 - Article 5

Life-table representations of family dynamics in Sweden, Hungary, and 14 other FFS countries: A project of descriptions of demographic behavior
Volume 7 - Article 4

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