Volume 19 - Article 46 | Pages 1635–1662  

Sources of error and bias in methods of fertility estimation contingent on the P/F ratio in a time of declining fertility and rising mortality

By Tom Moultrie, Rob Dorrington

Abstract

Almost all commonly used indirect fertility estimation methods rely on the P/F ratio. As originally conceived, the ratio compares cumulated cohort fertility with cumulated period fertility on the basis of three, fairly strong, assumptions. The intention of this paper is to interrogate what happens to the results produced by the P/F ratio method as each of these three assumptions is violated, first independently, and then concurrently. These investigations are important given the generally poor quality of census data collected in developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, and the radically altering demographic conditions associated with a generalised HIV/AIDS epidemic in the region.

Author's Affiliation

• Tom Moultrie - University of Cape Town, South Africa EMAIL
• Rob Dorrington - University of Cape Town (UCT), South Africa EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Sexual behaviour patterns in South Africa and their association with the spread of HIV: insights from a mathematical model
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Dispensing with marriage: Marital and partnership trends in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa 2000-2006
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Modelling the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa and the likely impact of interventions
Volume 14 - Article 22

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