Special Collection 1 - Article 7 | Pages 207–246  

"Moving" and Marrying: Modelling HIV Infection among Newly-weds in Malawi

By Michael Bracher, Gigi Santow, Susan Watkins

This article is part of the Special Collection 1 "Social Interactions and HIV/AIDS in Rural Africa"

Abstract

We use a microsimulation model to estimate the proportions of rural Malawian brides and grooms who are already HIV positive when they marry. The model, a demographic model of reproduction and mortality overlaid with a model of disease transmission, incorporates behavioural input data derived from the second round of the Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project, which was conducted in three areas of rural Malawi in 2001.
We estimate that HIV infection is present in between 13 and 20 per cent of couples. Although young women are more likely to be HIV positive than men of the same age, as a result of their low ages at marriage only around two per cent of brides are estimated to be HIV positive.

Author's Affiliation

• Michael Bracher - Independent researcher, International EMAIL
• Gigi Santow - Independent researcher, International EMAIL
• Susan Watkins - University of Pennsylvania, United States of America EMAIL

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

Asking God about the date you will die: HIV testing as a zone of uncertainty in rural Malawi
Volume 23 - Article 32

The Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project 2004-06: Data collection, data quality, and analysis of attrition
Volume 20 - Article 21

A summary of Special Collection 1: Social Interactions and HIV/AIDS in Rural Africa
Volume 9 - Article 12

Attrition in Longitudinal Household Survey Data: Some Tests for Three Developing-Country Samples
Volume 5 - Article 4

Empirical Assessments of Social Networks, Fertility and Family Planning Programs: Nonlinearities and their Implications
Volume 3 - Article 7

How do we know we need to control for selectivity?
Special Collection 1 - Article 4

Introduction to "Research on Demographic Aspects of HIV/AIDS in Rural Africa"
Special Collection 1 - Article 1

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