Volume 34 - Article 20 | Pages 563–586
Diverging patterns of fertility decline in Uruguay
By Mathías Nathan, Ignacio Pardo, Wanda Cabella
Abstract
Background: The total fertility rate (TFR) in Uruguay fell from 2.5 to 1.9 children per woman between 1996 and 2011. However, no study to date has examined the decline of the TFR by observing changes in fertility patterns by birth order.
Objective: The main aim of this study is to analyze recent changes in fertility level and timing of childbearing by birth order in Uruguay.
Methods: We estimate unconditional and conditional age- and birth-order-specific fertility rates for 1996-2011 using data from vital statistics, population census, and national population estimates. Additionally, three period summary measures of birth-order-specific fertility quantum are calculated: TFR, PATFR and TFRp*. Timing changes by birth order are examined with MAB and TMAB, focusing on MAB1 and its standard deviation and comparing their evolutions in Uruguay with those of selected countries.
Results: Fertility decline fits a parity-specific stopping model with a moderate increase in the mean ages of first, second, and third births. The distribution of conditional fertility rates for first and second births depicts an asymmetric bimodal shape linked to the increasing heterogeneity of the timing of childbearing. Compared to countries with similar fertility trends, heterogeneity in the age at first birth in Uruguay is remarkably high.
Conclusions: Previous studies suggest that heterogeneity in first and second birth timing is related to structural social inequalities, as women from lower social strata have not significantly changed the age at which they bear a first child, whereas women of middle to high social strata have started to postpone it. The new evidence reinforces the idea that postponement transition in Uruguay cannot be studied without considering this consolidation of social status polarization in fertility timing.
Author's Affiliation
- Mathías Nathan - Universidad Católica del Uruguay, Uruguay EMAIL
- Ignacio Pardo - Universidad de la República, Uruguay EMAIL
- Wanda Cabella - Universidad de la República, Uruguay EMAIL
Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research
The big decline: Lowest-low fertility in Uruguay (2016–2021)
Volume 50 - Article 16
Delayed first births and completed fertility across the 1940–1969 birth cohorts
Volume 48 - Article 15
Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research
The short- and long-term determinants of fertility in Uruguay
Volume 51 - Article 10
| Keywords:
fertility,
panel data,
stages of female reproductive life,
time series,
Uruguay
The big decline: Lowest-low fertility in Uruguay (2016–2021)
Volume 50 - Article 16
| Keywords:
adolescent fertility,
birth order,
fertility,
Latin America,
ultra-low fertility,
Uruguay
Cohort fertility of immigrants to Israel from the former Soviet Union
Volume 50 - Article 13
| Keywords:
age at first birth,
assimilation,
cohort analysis,
fertility,
immigration,
parity,
religiosity
Fertility decline, changes in age structure, and the potential for demographic dividends: A global analysis
Volume 50 - Article 9
| Keywords:
age structure,
demographic dividend,
demographic transition,
fertility,
migration,
population momentum,
working-age population
Analyzing hyperstable population models
Volume 49 - Article 37
| Keywords:
birth trajectory,
cohort analysis,
cyclical populations,
dynamic population model,
fertility,
hyperstable,
period
Cited References: 39
Download to Citation Manager
PubMed
Google Scholar