Volume 23 - Article 8 | Pages 191-222

Model migration schedules incorporating student migration peaks

By Tom Wilson

Print this page  Facebook  Twitter


Date received:10 Nov 2009
Date published:27 Jul 2010
Word count:4594
Keywords:Australia, Microsoft Excel, model migration schedule, population projection, student migration
Updated Items:On January 28, 2013 four typing mistakes were corrected on page 199, page 202, and on page 203.


This paper proposes an extension of the standard parameterised model migration schedule to account for highly age-concentrated student migration. Many age profiles of regional migration are characterised by sudden ‘spiked’ increases in migration intensities in the late teenage years, which are related to leaving school, and, in particular, to entry into higher education. The standard model schedule does not appear to be effective in describing the pattern at these ages. This paper therefore proposes an extension of the standard model through the addition of a student curve. The paper also describes a relatively simple Microsoft Excel-based fitting procedure. By way of illustration, both student peak and standard model schedules are fitted to the age patterns of internal migration for two Australian regions that experience substantial student migration. The student peak schedule is shown to provide an improved model of these migration age profiles. Illustrative population projections are presented to demonstrate the differences that result when model migration schedules with and without student peaks are used.

Author's Affiliation

Tom Wilson - Charles Darwin University, Australia [Email]

Other articles by the same author/authors in Demographic Research

» Visualising the demographic factors which shape population age structure
Volume 35 - Article 29

» The sequential propensity household projection model
Volume 28 - Article 24

» Australia's uncertain demographic future
Volume 11 - Article 8

Most recent similar articles in Demographic Research

» A method for socially evaluating the effects of long-run demographic paths on living standards
Volume 31 - Article 11    | Keywords: Australia, population projection

» Lifetime probabilities of multigenerational caregiving and labor force attachment in Australia
Volume 35 - Article 52    | Keywords: Australia

» Smoothing internal migration age profiles for comparative research
Volume 32 - Article 33    | Keywords: model migration schedule

» Economic support ratios and the demographic dividend in Europe
Volume 30 - Article 34    | Keywords: population projection

» Non-marital pregnancy and the second demographic transition in Australia in historical perspective
Volume 30 - Article 21    | Keywords: Australia


»Volume 23





Similar Articles



Jump to Article

Volume Page
Volume Article ID